{
  "question_id": "W201",
  "slug": "hyperscaler-capex-1-trillion",
  "title": "Big-five tech capex exceeds $1 trillion in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W201",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require the calendar year to have ended even for a lower-bound resolution, and ordinarily use only Oracle’s March–November cash expenditure unless qualifying finer-period actual figures become available.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7779
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.779
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8582
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9017
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W201",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require a completed calendar year even for the lower-bound route, use only post-opening publications as resolving evidence, and normally count Oracle’s March–November cash PP&E spending with zero assigned to its unallocable cross-year months.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.62212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.79258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.79279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.87574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.87599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.87611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.87617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.91332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.91349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.91358
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W201",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Calendar-year totals use Alphabet/Amazon(gross)/Meta purchases of P&E, Microsoft cash additions reconstructed by calendar quarter, and Oracle only Mar–Nov (three fiscal quarters wholly inside the year); CY2027 would resolve when the last Q4-2027 earnings release/10-K appears (late Jan–early Feb 2028).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.933
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W201",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The five companies will spend roughly $780 billion this year under the question's cash definition, so 2026 cannot qualify. Analysts' consensus puts 2027 at about $1.06 trillion on this basis. Spending only needs to grow modestly above its late‑2026 pace, and the full 2027 figures arrive in early 2028. What would most change this forecast is a sudden stall in spending growth in early 2027, from an AI‑demand or financing shock or a large shift to leasing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.9
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.924
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W201",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The five companies will spend roughly $790 billion in 2026 as the question counts it, so 2026 cannot qualify. Analysts expect about $1.04–1.07 trillion in 2027, and spending only needs to edge up slightly from late-2026 levels to pass $1 trillion. That result would be published in early 2028. The development that would most change this forecast is a broad pullback in spending, driven by rising interest rates, funding strain or an OpenAI shock.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.76
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.76
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.76
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.926
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}