{
  "question_id": "W270",
  "slug": "human-ai-marriage-recognised",
  "title": "A jurisdiction recognises a human–AI marriage",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W270",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11589
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W270",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154635
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W270",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W270",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country or state anywhere lets a person legally marry or form a civil partnership with an AI. The trend runs the other way: several US states have banned legal personhood for AI, and China is restricting AI romance. No bill, lawsuit or campaign is anywhere close to winning, so I put the chance at about 1% by the end of 2031. What would most change this is a national parliament or high court seriously taking up a measure to recognise such unions.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W270",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country or state lets a person legally marry, or form a civil partnership with, an artificial intelligence, and the trend runs the other way: several American states have banned legal personhood for such systems, and China is restricting companion chatbots. Changing marriage law takes years and needs a strong campaign that does not yet exist, so I put the chance below 2% through 2031. Any government granting these systems broad legal personhood would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}