{
  "question_id": "W70",
  "slug": "hidden-loyalties-found-in-a-model",
  "title": "A lab insider is found to have put hidden loyalties in a model",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W70",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require the official publication itself to affirm deliberate insertion by developer personnel, actual concealment, deployment, and an identifiable beneficiary; output censorship plus a general duty to obey national law is not sufficient.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6445
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W70",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require the official publication itself to establish deliberate insertion attributable to developer personnel, actual concealment, deployment and an identifiable beneficiary, rather than infer those elements from biased outputs, censorship or proprietary prompts alone; a new finding about an older deployment can qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6273
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W70",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Official findings in the style of the April 2025 House DeepSeek report count if they affirmatively state that a covered developer deliberately built covert, undisclosed manipulation serving an identified beneficiary (e.g., the CCP) into a deployed model; censorship or bias findings without explicit concealment and deliberate developer design do not count. About 30% weight is kept on a stricter resolver who would exclude legally mandated CCP censorship altogether.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.41
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.44
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.49
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.51
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.62
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.63
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.655
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W70",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Findings that an AI model was secretly built to serve a person or group are rare. But American congressional investigators concluded in 2025 that a Chinese chatbot covertly pushes Communist Party propaganda, and a new House investigation of Chinese models is underway. If reports like that count, the five-year chance is a little above even. A congressional report this winter making that finding would most change the forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.57
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.583
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}