{
  "question_id": "W251",
  "slug": "health-system-suspends-ai-tools",
  "title": "A major health system suspends its generative-AI clinical tools",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W251",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7691
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W251",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7894
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W251",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only a mandatory, whole-system direction to stop an existing clinical use of a specific gen-AI product or defined category (including unapproved/public chatbots or non-compliant scribes), evidenced by a publication on the system's or governing ministry's official domain; leaked letters or press reports alone (like NHS England's June 2025 AVT letter) do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W251",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about one in three by end-2031, and only about 1% by the end of this year. In the generative-AI era only one large system clearly did this: NHS England told staff in June 2025 to stop using unapproved AI note-taking tools. Health systems and governments are now pushing AI adoption rather than restricting it. A serious patient-harm scandal or data breach involving an AI scribe or chatbot would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.32
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W251",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate a low near-term chance, about 10% by end-2027, rising to about 39% by end-2031. Health systems are rolling out AI note-takers and chatbots fast, and near-misses happen roughly once a year: England's NHS told staff to stop using non-compliant AI scribes in 2025, and Israel blocked public chatbots in 2026. But orders that are published, mandatory, system-wide, and in a big enough system are rare. A major AI-scribe data breach or harm scandal would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}