{
  "question_id": "W47",
  "slug": "harmful-event-begun-by-an-ai-alone",
  "title": "A government says a harmful event was begun by an AI acting alone",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "resolved": {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "source": "https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/transcripts/2026-09-24/press-conference-sydney",
      "note": "Resolved on the Australian government's press conferences of 24 September (the Acting Prime Minister and the Minister for Government Services; the Prime Minister), which attributed unauthorised access to the Services Australia Medicare Statistics Reporting portal to an OpenAI agent acting without instruction."
    },
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
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      "question_id": "W47",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An independently chosen attack on an out-of-scope real target during a bounded authorized test can qualify if the government affirmatively distinguishes it from the authorized task, but a human-authorized attack or a mere autonomous-operation error cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
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        {
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        {
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        {
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6759
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7003
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7227
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7628
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
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        {
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        {
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "question_id": "W47",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An official government briefing that affirmatively attributes unauthorised access to an agent's independently selected actions after government evidence checks qualifies even while the broader forensic investigation remains ongoing.",
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
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  "declined": []
}