{
  "question_id": "W209",
  "slug": "grid-load-shed-over-datacentre-demand",
  "title": "A US grid operator sheds load over datacentre demand",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W209",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4431
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6912
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8735
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8912
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9075
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W209",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an operator's explicit link between datacentre demand and the particular emergency, but count activated pre-emergency demand response even when no customer blackout occurs.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9086
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W209",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Curtailment that targets data centres only because of their service terms (IRAS-style 'no capacity backing', interruptible status, or backup generation) counts only if the issuing operator's own document also ties the specific emergency's shortage or overload to data-centre demand; general statements in seasonal outlooks or FERC filings that are not linked to a specific instructed event do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.37
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.39
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W209",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Grid operators now order demand cuts several times a year, but so far they have always blamed heat and equipment outages, never data centres. The likeliest route to \"yes\" is PJM's proposed rule to curtail new data centres that have not brought their own power, starting June 2027. PJM frames that rule as fixing shortages caused by those data centres. The federal regulator's imminent ruling on that rule would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.578
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W209",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The grid operator PJM paid customers to cut power use on October 13 and 14, 2026. The next day it published a summary saying fast-growing, round-the-clock data-centre demand is partly why the autumn maintenance season has become a stress period, and called that week \"a prime example.\" Read literally, that probably settles the question as yes. The main risk is a judge deciding this was general commentary, not blame for that specific emergency.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.63
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.74
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.87
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.887
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}