{
  "question_id": "W185",
  "slug": "graduate-unemployment-matches-high-school",
  "title": "Graduate unemployment reaches the high-school rate",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W185",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.100136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127815
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.158075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W185",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2257
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W185",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W185",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In 34 years of monthly data, unemployment among college graduates aged 25 and over has never matched that of high-school graduates. The narrowest gap was 1.2 points, and the latest reading (September 2026) shows a 1.9-point gap. Closing it would take an unprecedented shock from artificial intelligence that hits graduates far harder than everyone else, so I put the chance at about 4% by the end of 2031. The gap narrowing steadily below one point would most raise my estimate.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W185",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 4% over five years. College graduates aged 25 and over still have much lower unemployment than high-school graduates: 2.5% versus 4.4% in September 2026. In 34 years of monthly data the gap has never fallen below 1.2 points, and past white-collar slumps widened it. What would most change this forecast is a sharp, sustained jump in graduates' unemployment, for example from AI replacing office work, while trade and service hiring stays strong.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0363
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}