{
  "question_id": "W64",
  "slug": "government-orders-model-shut-down",
  "title": "A government orders a deployed model shut down, and it is",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W64",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I treat a model as any identifiable model or checkpoint from a covered developer, not only a flagship frontier model, and require the mandatory order itself to cover all developer-controlled external deployments or all internal use worldwide.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4734
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6031
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W64",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require the mandatory order itself to cover every developer-controlled external deployment of the identifiable model or all internal execution, so broader voluntary compliance with a narrower order and tool-use-only pauses do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.37
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5641
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W64",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a qualifying government confirmation at about 1% by the end of 2026, rising to about 27% by the end of 2031. In June, a US order effectively took two Anthropic models offline for all users. It doesn't count because it only barred foreign nationals and was never confirmed on a government website. Labs keep pulling risky models on their own. The development that would most raise my forecast is a US law giving the government power to order shutdowns.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W64",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet met this strict bar. The closest case, the US forcing two Anthropic models offline in June 2026, legally applied only to foreign users and was never confirmed on a government website. Today's US government prefers voluntary self-policing, and China rarely names its leading labs in shutdown orders. So the odds are low for now and rise later if new laws give governments shutdown powers. A federal \"kill switch\" law would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}