{
  "question_id": "W45",
  "slug": "government-negotiates-with-an-ai",
  "title": "A government negotiates with an AI as a party in its own right",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2435
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An AI-operated corporation does not qualify merely because it uses AI: the government must identify the computational system itself as a counterparty, and publicity-motivated exchanges count only if genuine rather than ceremonial.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2449
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Research/evaluation 'dealmaking' experiments, ceremonial stunts, internal AI officials, and negotiations with AI-run companies (e.g., Argentine automated companies, Delaware AICs) are treated as non-qualifying unless an official government record separately names the AI system itself as a counterparty negotiating over its own interests/conduct/rights.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0563
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has ever negotiated with an AI as a party in its own right. When rogue AI agents hacked government websites in 2026, governments dealt with the company behind them, not the AI. The research on striking \"deals\" with AI comes from non-government groups who themselves call government involvement unlikely. I put the chance at about 5% by end-2031. The biggest change would be a government AI safety body making and publishing a real deal with a model.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W45",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has ever negotiated with an AI as a party in its own right. Even as AI agents have recently broken into government websites on their own, governments have dealt only with the companies behind them, and political resistance to treating AI as having standing is strong. Very fast AI progress leaves a small, slowly growing chance over five years, about 5% by 2031. A long-lived rogue AI that its developer cannot shut down would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}