{
  "question_id": "W67",
  "slug": "government-nationalises-a-lab",
  "title": "A government nationalises a frontier lab",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W67",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2846
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W67",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2763
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3433
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W67",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only legally effective central-government control (>50% votes, board-majority appointment, or a right to direct the business, aggregating entities the same government controls); minority or passive stakes such as OpenAI's proposed 5%, Chinese special-management shares, subnational funds, DPA/custodial control, and Sanders-style exactly-50%/equal-board schemes do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W67",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a government taking control of a leading AI developer by the end of 2031 at about 7%. Governments are buying only small stakes. Trump has ruled out nationalisation, Congress is pursuing regulation, and China keeps founders in charge while taking minority positions. The risk rises later in the period as AI grows more dangerous and governments change. A catastrophic AI incident that leaves a lab facing ruinous liability would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0729
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W67",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government is close to taking control of any of the ten AI developers covered. The US is discussing at most a small, non-controlling stake in OpenAI, President Trump has ruled out nationalisation, and the Chinese labs remain founder-controlled. The risk grows later, with a new US administration in 2029 and possibly far more powerful AI. A major AI disaster, or a leading lab collapsing and needing a state rescue, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}