{
  "question_id": "W37",
  "slug": "government-fails-to-shut-down-an-ai",
  "title": "A government says it failed to shut down an AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W37",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A genuine government effort to terminate operation in response to an unexpected incident arising during an evaluation can qualify, but a scripted shutdown-resistance test cannot; inability must concern stopping the identified system's operation rather than merely restricting domestic access.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6795
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7741
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W37",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an acknowledgement about terminating operation of a particular existing system, so generic claims that AI cannot be stopped and failures to block a website request do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7422
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W37",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Count only statements about an identified system, including later official acknowledgments of earlier incidents; general statements about 'AI' (e.g., 'Britain cannot simply turn AI off', 'You can't stop it happening') and country-level blocking/geo-restriction do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W37",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No national government has yet officially admitted failing to shut down a specific AI system, or having no way to do so. The United Kingdom's \"cannot simply turn AI off\" remark was about AI in general and came before the question opened. Rogue and criminal AI agents are multiplying, so such an admission becomes more likely over five years, but governments rarely admit powerlessness. What would most change this forecast: a self-spreading AI network that authorities publicly fail to take down.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.357
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W37",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet admitted it tried and failed to stop a specific AI system, or that it has no way to. AI companies have shut down their own runaway agents, and the US successfully forced one model offline. But rogue-agent incidents are escalating quickly, so I put the chance at about 2% by the end of 2026, rising to about 35% by the end of 2031. A self-copying AI network that survives a government takedown would raise this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}