{
  "question_id": "W96",
  "slug": "g7-majority-prefers-ai-government",
  "title": "A majority in a G7 country prefers AI to elected officials",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W96",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1912
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2082
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W96",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1802
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W96",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: a named pollster (Pew/Gallup/YouGov/Ipsos) must publish a national adult result in a G7 country, with fieldwork ending after 2026-09-16, where more than 50% of all respondents (including don't-knows) say they support or prefer AI making most or all national government decisions, or replacing elected politicians as the principal decision-maker; trust, perceived competence, partial replacement and subgroup results do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W96",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Polls in wealthy democracies have never come close to majority support for letting an AI system make most government decisions. Support has generally run around 10 to 35 percent, and public worry about AI rose sharply through 2026, with most people stressing that humans must stay in control. I put the chance near zero this year and about four percent by the end of 2031. The biggest change would come from a major pollster finding more than half of Italians or Japanese in favour.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W96",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of YES at about 3% by end of 2031. None of Pew, Gallup, YouGov or Ipsos has found a majority in a G7 country for letting AI make most government decisions, or even asked that exact question. Other polls put support at roughly 5 to 30%, and worry about AI is rising in these countries. The development that would most change this forecast is AI becoming widely trusted and visibly better than humans at governing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}