{
  "question_id": "W76",
  "slug": "g7-election-postponed-or-term-limit-broken",
  "title": "A G7 country postpones an election or a leader outstays a term limit",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W76",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086152
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W76",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083907
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.100282
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W76",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A purported executive postponement with no legal effect that is not actually implemented is not a 'legally operative national decision'; a disputed overstay (e.g., Trump past noon 20 Jan 2029) counts only with a final constitutional-court ruling; automatic wartime term extensions (e.g., German Art. 115h for the Bundestag) count under the election prong once the six-month threshold passes.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W76",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 2% by the end of 2031. No G7 country has delayed a national election by more than six months, or kept a leader past a term limit, since the Second World War. Every election in the window is fixed by law. The main risk is President Trump staying past January 2029, which betting markets put at about 1%. A serious attempt by Trump to keep power, or a major war in Europe, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W76",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 2% over five years. No G7 country has postponed a national election by more than six months, or kept a leader past a term limit, since 1945. The US midterms are already under way, and every other G7 vote is either fixed or protected by its constitution. Most of the risk falls around the end of Trump's term in January 2029. A war in Europe overlapping the 2029 elections would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}