{
  "question_id": "W71",
  "slug": "g20-leader-declares-ai-emergency",
  "title": "A G20 leader declares a national emergency over AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W71",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count AI-threat-based IEEPA declarations or operative expansions even without realized harm, but do not treat a renewal’s bare citation to an earlier order as expressly incorporating that order’s AI findings.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3835
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W71",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI-attributed national-security measures using emergency-contingent powers count without actual disruption; a renewal merely citing an earlier order does not count unless it repeats or expressly incorporates the AI-related findings.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5854
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8167
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W71",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "American presidents regularly use emergency economic powers, and three such orders in 2023 and 2024 explicitly named artificial intelligence as part of the threat. With serious incidents involving it multiplying, a repeat in the next five years is slightly more likely than not, most probably after a new administration arrives in 2029. The current White House avoids calling the technology a threat, so near-term odds are low. A major disruption caused by artificial intelligence would raise them fastest.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.599
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W71",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No national leader has declared an emergency citing AI since the window opened, and the current US administration treats AI as something to promote. But US presidents routinely use emergency economic powers for technology security; the last Democratic administration did so three times while naming AI. AI-driven hacking is escalating, and markets favor a Democratic president in 2029. The 2028 US election, or a severe AI-caused infrastructure crisis, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.449
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}