{
  "question_id": "W84",
  "slug": "g20-government-says-ai-makes-most-decisions",
  "title": "A G20 government says AI makes most of its decisions",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W84",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015895
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056971
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.100924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13422
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W84",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20703
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W84",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an explicit government-wide claim that AI makes most national-government decisions qualifies (claims about a category such as services, applications or administrative transactions, or about AI-supported decisions, do not), and heads of state who do not head the government (e.g., Xi, Putin, the French president) do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W84",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major-economy government has ever officially said AI makes most of its decisions. Even the most aggressive plan, from the United Arab Emirates (not a G20 member), only targets putting AI into half of its services. Leaders have strong legal and political reasons to keep humans formally in charge, so I put the chance at about 3% by 2031. What would most change this is AI clearly running most routine government casework somewhere, with a boastful leader willing to say so.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
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          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0207
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}