{
  "question_id": "W213",
  "slug": "fusion-plant-delivers-grid-power",
  "title": "A fusion plant delivers grid electricity under a PPA",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W213",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.180941
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.230939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.253242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.277138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.302438
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W213",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.080594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.100821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.196557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.275756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.326963
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W213",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Applied the net-export requirement strictly: the plant must be a net exporter of fusion-attributable electricity at its grid connection, confirmed by operator and PPA buyer; gross 'electricity from fusion' recovered internally, fission output from hybrids, or discharge of grid-charged storage does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W213",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only one company, Helion, is building a fusion plant under a signed power contract that could run before 2032. Its prototype hasn't yet shown even partial electricity from fusion, it has already pushed full output past 2028, and no fusion machine has ever made more electricity than it uses. I put the chance at about 4% by the end of 2031. The biggest upward shift would come from Helion showing its prototype recovering substantial fusion energy as electricity.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W213",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 5% chance by the end of 2031. No fusion machine has yet produced more electricity than it uses. The only plant with a signed buyer that could export power before 2032 is Helion's Orion plant for Microsoft. Helion now promises only to start operating in 2028 and to reach full power in 2029 or 2030, and physicists doubt its design. Proof that Helion's prototype makes net electricity would raise my estimate the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}