{
  "question_id": "W113",
  "slug": "foreign-state-obtains-frontier-weights",
  "title": "A foreign state obtains a lab's frontier model weights",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W113",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.52
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6415
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W113",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5571
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W113",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put about a 12% chance on this by the end of 2031, and under 1% this year. AI labs admit they cannot yet stop determined state hackers, and US officials are eager to blame China for AI theft. But there is no confirmed case so far, a theft may go unnoticed, and labs and spy agencies have strong reasons to stay quiet. A credible leak of an actual weight theft, which would push officials to confirm it, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W113",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No US agency or major AI company has ever confirmed that a foreign government stole a leading closed AI model's internal settings (its \"weights\"). Labs admit they cannot fully defend against state hackers, but a theft would also have to be detected, publicly attributed to a named country, and confirmed in an official document. I put this at under 1% this year and about 9% by end-2031. A lab disclosing a breach with weights taken would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0892
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}