{
  "question_id": "W145",
  "slug": "foreign-inspectors-visit-a-datacentre",
  "title": "Foreign inspectors inspect a US or Chinese datacentre",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W145",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2928
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3931
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W145",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W145",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Export-control end-use checks under pre-existing arrangements (e.g., the 2004 US-China end-use visit understanding) are treated as excluded unless a new agreement with express AI provisions governs the inspection.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W145",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither the United States nor China has ever let foreign inspectors into its data centres under an artificial intelligence agreement. Both governments currently reject outside oversight. Their new dialogue covers only talks and an incident hotline, and the tools for checking compliance are immature. What would most change this forecast is a serious disaster caused by artificial intelligence that pushes both countries into a deal with on-site checks.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0483
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W145",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States and China have only just agreed to talk about artificial intelligence risks and to set up an incident hotline. Nobody has proposed letting foreign inspectors into data centres, and rival powers have historically accepted on-site inspections only decades after a strategic technology emerged. The development that would most change this forecast is a deal between the two countries to cap advanced artificial intelligence that includes on-site checks of computing facilities, perhaps prompted by a serious disaster.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0462
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}