{
  "question_id": "W298",
  "slug": "fed-blames-ai-bust-for-contraction",
  "title": "The Fed blames an AI investment bust for a contraction",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W298",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3072
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W298",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.30717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31826
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W298",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A single quarter of declining real GDP reported in an MPR counts, and the causal chain from the AI-related fall (investment explicitly tied to AI, or AI-identified equity declines) to that contraction may run across passages of the same MPR; FOMC statements count but are judged very unlikely to name AI.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W298",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve's twice-yearly report already credits artificial intelligence spending for much of American growth, so a bust in that spending that shrank the economy would probably be named. But growth is solid today and that spending is still accelerating. A YES needs a bust, an actual drop in output and explicit wording before 2032. I estimate about 20%, mostly from 2028 onward. Large tech firms sharply cutting their spending would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W298",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Fed's semiannual report already describes the economy in AI terms, and an AI spending bust that pushes GDP below zero would probably be named as a cause. But spending is still surging, the economy grew strongly last quarter, and three things must line up: an actual output decline, an actual AI pullback, and explicit blame in a narrow set of documents. I put this at about 21% by 2031. A sharp fall in AI spending would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}