{
  "question_id": "W238",
  "slug": "fda-approves-75-novel-drugs",
  "title": "FDA approves 75 novel drugs in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W238",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.030861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035706
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.240041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.240345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.246423
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W238",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.110349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.180008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.260065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.260361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.263689
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W238",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts CDER's year-specific Novel Drug Approvals page and table; YES is established when an FDA page update first lists 75 or more entries for one calendar year. Late-December approvals usually post in early January, so they establish YES in the next quarter.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W238",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 22% chance that the FDA's drug center approves 75 or more new drugs in a single year by 2031. 2026 is set for a record of about 60–65 and drug applications are at a record pace, but 75 would still be about 20% above that record, and industry forecasters expect a flat 50–55 a year. The biggest swing factor is the 2027 total: a year above 70 would make this much more likely.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}