{
  "question_id": "W240",
  "slug": "fda-approves-500-novel-drugs",
  "title": "FDA approves 500 novel drugs in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W240",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00019998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00049992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00064985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00074978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00279685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00349489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00648441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00797468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00995783
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W240",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00014999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00017999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00024998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00059989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00079977
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00089969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00114946
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00239803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00309635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00339542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00718012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00847079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00896655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00995759
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W240",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W240",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This is very unlikely. The Food and Drug Administration has never approved more than 59 new drugs in a year, and 2026 is on pace for about 60. Reaching 500 would need almost ten times the record within five years, while the number of drugs in development is shrinking. What would most change this is a new law letting hundreds of drugs be approved on early data or because other countries already approved them.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00297
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W240",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "FDA's drug center has never approved more than 59 new drugs in a year. It has approved 46 so far in 2026, so 500 would take about eight to nine times its best year ever. Drug pipelines, the years clinical trials take, and the agency's own staffing make that kind of jump nearly impossible by 2031. The main thing that would change this is a sweeping law, or a shift driven by artificial intelligence, letting regulators approve hundreds of drugs on far less human testing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}