{
  "question_id": "W239",
  "slug": "fda-approves-150-novel-drugs",
  "title": "FDA approves 150 novel drugs in a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W239",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W239",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0020491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0291691
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W239",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The drug-review arm of the Food and Drug Administration has never approved more than 59 new drugs in a year, and 2026 stands at 45 through September. Reaching 150 would take nearly three times the usual output. The pipeline is not growing fast enough for that, and drugs take years to get through human trials. The development that would most change this forecast is a law or policy approving drugs after early-stage trials or on the strength of foreign approvals.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00926
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W239",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "FDA's drug center has approved 46 new drugs so far in 2026, and its record is 59 in one year. Reaching 150 would take about two and a half times that record, but drugs approved through 2031 are mostly already in testing, and filings run near 70–90 a year. A YES would likely need a sweeping change, such as a law letting the FDA approve large numbers of drugs early, or artificial intelligence transforming drug development very quickly.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}