{
  "question_id": "W224",
  "slug": "extreme-poverty-below-5-percent",
  "title": "Global extreme poverty falls below 5%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W224",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024969
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W224",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016278
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W224",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W224",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The World Bank's newest figures put global extreme poverty at about 9.8% in 2026. The decline is only a fraction of a point a year, and the Bank expects about 9% in 2030. Halving it within five years would be faster than ever recorded, so YES would essentially need a change in how poverty is measured. The development that would most change this forecast is new international price data, due around 2027–28, cutting the measured count of poor people by almost half.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}