{
  "question_id": "W280",
  "slug": "extreme-poverty-below-1-percent",
  "title": "Global extreme poverty falls below 1%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W280",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00028997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00063984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00093965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00103956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00153904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00173873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00233768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00253722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00353468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00393327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00502894
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W280",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00016499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00028497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00034495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00058486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00093465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00108451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00158397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00173373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00253235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00288146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00392844
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W280",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00225
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W280",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The World Bank's latest figures show about one person in ten worldwide in extreme poverty (9.8% projected for 2026). Its own outlook is for slow progress or even a rise. Getting below 1% by 2030 would need a 90% fall in four years, more than three times faster than the fastest drop ever recorded. Only a radical change in how the Bank measures poverty, or a data error, could plausibly change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}