{
  "question_id": "W159",
  "slug": "exclusive-claim-on-the-moon",
  "title": "A government claims exclusive rights to part of the Moon",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W159",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An official statement qualifies if it purports to assert a present exclusive entitlement, even if unlawful or unenforceable, but patriotic rhetoric or a nonbinding political declaration without such an assertion does not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0754
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2272
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W159",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an official assertion of a present exclusive entitlement, rather than celebratory ownership rhetoric or a nonbinding declaration of future policy; neither legality nor actual occupation is required.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2824
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W159",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Presidential social-media memes or offhand remarks (like the 6 Sep 2026 'THE MOON IS OURS' post) are treated as qualifying only if a resolver deems them an official assertion via an adopted governmental act, which I judge unlikely (~15-20%); the forecast rests mainly on formal claims, licences or treaties.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W159",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has ever formally claimed part of the Moon, and the United States still officially upholds the 1967 treaty banning such claims, so I put the chance at about 18% by 2031. The main risk is President Trump repeating his September \"The Moon is ours\" post in a form judged official. A formal order, law or diplomatic note claiming lunar territory would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W159",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has formally claimed land on the Moon in nearly 60 years. US agencies still follow the treaty that bans such claims, even after President Trump's \"The Moon is Ours\" post in early September, which came just before the question opened. Most of my roughly 14% chance comes from Trump repeating a similar claim before 2029 and a resolver counting it. A formal US order or proclamation claiming the Moon or a named lunar region would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}