{
  "question_id": "W302",
  "slug": "evaluator-finds-lab-research-5x",
  "title": "An independent evaluator finds AI has made a lab's research 5× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W302",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-05",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The independent group now measuring this inside Anthropic estimates artificial intelligence speeds the company's overall progress by about 1.5 times, far from 5. Reaching 5 times probably requires near-complete automation of research, which leading forecasters expect somewhere between 2028 and the early 2030s. An outside group would then have to publish a detailed estimate. The biggest change would come if that group's estimate rose above 2 or 3 times during 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W302",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-05",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "An outside evaluator, METR, already estimates AI research acceleration inside Anthropic under a formal agreement, so the reporting channel exists. Its current estimate is only about 1.5 times faster, against a required 5 times. That would mean five years of progress per year, which likely needs near-full automation of AI research. Computing limits and industry efforts to slow down make that uncertain before 2031. A sharp jump in METR's or Anthropic's measured pace would raise this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}