{
  "question_id": "W301",
  "slug": "evaluator-finds-lab-research-2x",
  "title": "An independent evaluator finds AI has made a lab's research 2× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W301",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-04",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Qualifying measure is an independent organisation's own central estimate of overall research or capability progress per unit time versus a no-AI counterfactual for a named covered developer (METR-style 'N years of progress in 1 year due to AI'); researcher, labour or coding uplift does not count unless explicitly presented as overall research pace; the observation period must end after 2026-10-04.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.46
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.55
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.613
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W301",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-04",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best independent estimate so far, from the evaluation group METR, puts AI's speed-up of Anthropic's research at about 1.5 times, with roughly a 30% chance it is already 2 times. METR is gaining deeper access inside AI companies, and AI's share of research work is climbing fast. So a published estimate of at least 2 times looks likely within five years, but not soon. The biggest swing factor is whether METR's upcoming reports show the speed-up rising toward 2 times.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.63
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.672
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}