{
  "question_id": "W303",
  "slug": "evaluator-finds-lab-research-20x",
  "title": "An independent evaluator finds AI has made a lab's research 20× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W303",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-06",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best independent estimate today says AI makes Anthropic's research about 1.5 times faster. Twenty times would take a runaway, self-accelerating leap in AI that most experts do not expect before 2031, and industry efforts to slow down could prevent it. A watchdog with inside access to measure and publish such a figure already exists, so the event itself is the main obstacle. Signs that AI is fully automating research at a major lab would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W303",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-06",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "My forecast is about 13% by the end of 2031, and near zero before 2028. The independent group best placed to measure this, the evaluation nonprofit METR, currently puts AI's speed-up of Anthropic's research at only about 1.5 times. Reaching 20 times would take something like an intelligence explosion. Deliberate slowdowns, cautious measurement and publication limits all cut against it. Clear evidence that a major lab had fully automated its AI research would raise my forecast sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}