{
  "question_id": "W304",
  "slug": "evaluator-finds-lab-research-100x",
  "title": "An independent evaluator finds AI has made a lab's research 100× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W304",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-07",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best independent estimate so far, from an evaluator with inside access at Anthropic, says artificial intelligence makes that company's research about one and a half times faster, far short of a hundredfold. Getting to a hundredfold would probably require machines that out-research the best humans, plus an outside group publishing a careful estimate before 2032. The development that would most change this forecast is machines running research at a major lab fully on their own.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0512
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W304",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-07",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best independent estimate so far says artificial intelligence makes a leading lab's research about one and a half times faster than its staff alone. A hundredfold speedup within five years would take something like an intelligence explosion, and an outside evaluator would then have to publish a careful figure. So this is unlikely but possible. The biggest change would be evidence that machines are running research largely on their own, with the measured speedup climbing fast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}