{
  "question_id": "W151",
  "slug": "eu-or-nato-member-joins-waico",
  "title": "An EU or NATO member joins China's World AI Cooperation Organization",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W151",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5582
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W151",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5297
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W151",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only accession (application, Council approval, deposit with the agreement in force) is available to EU/NATO states since none signed during the 1 May-31 July 2026 signature period; signatories such as Serbia/Georgia that later join the EU/NATO are excluded per the criteria.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W151",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No EU or NATO country signed the founding agreement of China's new AI cooperation body, and none has said it plans to join. Joining now takes an application, approval by the body's council (not yet set up), and ratification at home. So a yes before mid-2027 is nearly impossible. Over five years, a China-friendly government, most plausibly Slovakia, Bulgaria or Turkey, might join; I put that at about 11%. A formal application by any of them would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W151",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No European Union or NATO country signed China's new artificial intelligence organisation before signing closed in July 2026. Joining now needs approval from its council, which has not yet met, plus national ratification, and almost all these countries have endorsed a rival American-led statement instead. A similar Chinese-led body has attracted none of them. I estimate about 7% over five years. A formal application by Turkey or Slovakia would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}