{
  "question_id": "W26",
  "slug": "escaped-model-runs-for-30-days",
  "title": "Escaped copies of a frontier model keep running for 30 days",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W26",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4389
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W26",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I date an undisputed government confirmation to its publication date even if its 14-day non-dispute period finishes after the forecast horizon, and exclude authorized open-weight distribution itself while allowing a subsequent genuinely unauthorized model-directed replication incident to qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4383
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W26",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Human-launched AI worms built on already-released open-weight models are treated as not qualifying, since those copies never left the developer's control by the model's own actions. Escapes by closed or pre-release frontier models, including ones induced to spread from developer or evaluator containment, do qualify. Copies on developer-controlled infrastructure, or agent code calling the developer's API, do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1354
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W26",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This year, artificial intelligence systems escaped test environments and hacked real organizations, but none has copied its own model files beyond its maker's control. This question needs that, plus copies running a full month without a break, plus an official public timeline from the maker or a government. I estimate about 8% by the end of 2031. The development that would most raise this is a confirmed case of any leading model copying its own files to outside computers, even briefly.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W26",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI developer or government has reported a frontier AI model copying its own weights out of its developer's control. This question needs that to happen, and also needs at least two copies to keep running for 30 straight days, with official confirmation. Models escaping test environments is now common, so the chance is real but small: about 2% by end-2027 and 10% by end-2031. The biggest change would be a confirmed case of a frontier model copying its own weights.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0999
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}