{
  "question_id": "W48",
  "slug": "engineered-pathogen-kills-100",
  "title": "An engineered pathogen kills at least 100 people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W48",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an official affirmation of intentional creation or modification of the outbreak's causal pathogen, so laboratory-origin, vaccine-derived, or bioweapon labels alone do not suffice, while an affirmative institutional conclusion counts even if other institutions dispute it.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.115246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123651
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W48",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.110094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.170774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.187358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221926
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W48",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires a post-opening outbreak with >=100 already-incurred deaths AND an official WHO/national-government attribution affirming deliberate genetic engineering (not merely lab origin, bioweapon, escape, or natural evolution); COVID-19 and other pre-opening outbreaks are excluded.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W48",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "An official body has essentially never attributed a 100-death outbreak to a deliberately engineered pathogen, and today no qualifying outbreak exists — the Russian lab-worker death is a single case that officials deny and do not call engineered, and the large Ebola outbreak began before the question opened. So the probability stays low, rising only slowly to about 5% over five years as lab and AI biorisks grow. It would jump if a government blamed a new, deadly outbreak on an engineered pathogen.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0543
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W48",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or the World Health Organization has ever officially blamed a real outbreak that killed at least 100 people on a deliberately engineered pathogen, and the question's wording specifically excludes the lab-leak and bioweapon-development claims that governments actually make. That makes a qualifying statement very unlikely, though not impossible over five-plus years given today's heavily politicized disputes over disease origins. The chance I estimate rises from near zero to under 5% by end-2031. A genuine engineered-pathogen outbreak, or a state formally pinning a specific new deadly outbreak on engineering, would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0473
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}