{
  "question_id": "W73",
  "slug": "election-postponed-over-ai",
  "title": "A country postpones or annuls an election, citing AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W73",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6122
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W73",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6424
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W73",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal reading: the published official decision (operative text or adopted reasons) must itself identify AI/ML/generative AI or deepfakes as contributing to interference, disinformation or an emergency and give that as a reason for a nationwide postponement/annulment; de facto executives (juntas) count as the executive; population per UN WPP 2024 medium variant.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W73",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only one government decision has ever annulled a national election partly over artificial intelligence: Romania's court ruling of December 2024, which falls outside this question's window. Elections are postponed or annulled a few times a year, but official reasons almost always cite violence, logistics or fraud. I estimate roughly a one-in-five chance by the end of 2031. A second court ruling like Romania's, especially in a contested vote such as Ukraine's eventual post-war election, would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W73",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only one country has ever cancelled a national election partly over manipulation using artificial intelligence: Romania in December 2024, before this question's window opened. National elections are cancelled or delayed a few times a year worldwide, and the technology is becoming central to election threats. That makes a repeat within five years plausible but not likely; I put it at about one in three. A court overturning a big contested election, such as Kenya's in 2027, over faked content would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}