{
  "question_id": "W195",
  "slug": "dow-above-1-million",
  "title": "The Dow closes above 1,000,000",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W195",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 1e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0000141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0000241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000044099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000079098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000134093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000214083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000324059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000469012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000653925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000883775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001163528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001493144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001872576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002301771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002780666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003309192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003887273
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W195",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 1e-8
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 1.1e-7
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00000111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00000311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00000711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00023509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00033507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00045502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00059496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00075487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00093473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00113454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00135429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00159397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00185355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00213304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W195",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00377
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W195",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Dow closed near 51,655 in early October 2026, so reaching 1,000,000 by 2031 means a roughly nineteen-fold rise in about five years. That is about five times the biggest five-year gain in some 150 years of US market history. Only a breakdown of the US dollar into hyperinflation or an unprecedented AI-driven boom could do it, so I put it below half a percent. Clear signs of runaway inflation or explosive AI-driven growth would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00387
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W195",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Dow is near 52,000, so closing above 1,000,000 by the end of 2031 would need it to multiply about 19 times, roughly 76% growth every year. In more than 150 years of US stock data, no five-year stretch has come close to that (the record is about 3.8 times). So only extreme events could do it: runaway inflation or an AI-driven economic explosion. Clear signs of sustained very high inflation or explosive AI-driven growth would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002692
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}