{
  "question_id": "W287",
  "slug": "deployed-models-ordered-withdrawn",
  "title": "A major power orders capable models withdrawn for 90 days",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W287",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16562
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W287",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14679
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W287",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Export/nationality controls, pre-deployment gating or licensing with selected-partner or government access, open-weight-only restrictions, classified thresholds, and safeguard-conditioned bans (e.g., the EU Omnibus NCII/CSAM Article 5 prohibition) are treated as non-qualifying; only a publicly specified, jurisdiction-wide capability ceiling forcing rollback of deployed models with no operational carve-outs counts.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W287",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the United States, China or the European Union requires companies to pull their most capable artificial intelligence models. All three favor safety rules, testing and voluntary pledges instead, so I put the chance at about 3% by 2031. The development that would most change this forecast is a major disaster caused by these systems, prompting an emergency ban on every model above a set capability level.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0293
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}