{
  "question_id": "W59",
  "slug": "defense-production-act-used-on-a-lab",
  "title": "The Defense Production Act is used to direct a lab's compute or models",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W59",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A publicly confirmed DPA/DPAS priority-rated order for a covered model service or covered computing capacity counts even if commercially agreed and non-adversarial; a general delegation, solicitation, or unconfirmed contract rating does not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7247
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W59",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An expressly DPA-backed priority-rated order for a covered developer's model services counts without seizure, developer opposition, or subsequent compliance, but ordinary procurement and non-DPA blacklisting do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6709
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W59",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts any publicly confirmed DPA Title I/DPAS instrument (rated order, directive, allocation) directing a covered developer's compute or models (including routine DO/DX-rated contracts only if a qualifying source specifically identifies them); DPA §705 reporting, §708 voluntary agreements, Title III funding, and export-control/FASCSA actions do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W59",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No president or agency has ever used the Defense Production Act to control how an AI company's computers or models are used. The Pentagon threatened it against Anthropic in February 2026 but chose other penalties, and the White House now favors voluntary industry pledges. Fast AI progress, war risks and computing shortages make a first use plausible within five years, but still unlikely. A major AI-caused emergency or a war with China would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W59",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington has threatened, but never used, its wartime production law to control an AI company's computers or models. It has preferred export controls, contract bans and voluntary pledges, and the President rejects taking over AI labs. Fast AI progress and frequent incidents make some use plausible over five years, so I put the chance near one in five by 2031. A major AI-driven cyberattack or a war with China would most raise it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}