{
  "question_id": "W211",
  "slug": "datacentres-25-percent-of-us-electricity",
  "title": "Datacentres use 25% of US electricity",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W211",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.060476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077388
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W211",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046217
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W211",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Data centres used about 5% of US electricity in 2024, according to the Energy Department's own laboratory, and its highest scenario for 2030 is about 15%. Reaching 25% would take roughly a sixfold rise in about five years. That is beyond every mainstream forecast, and a government report confirming it would also have to appear by 2031. The development that would most change this is an artificial-intelligence building boom far larger than expected, with the power plants to run it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W211",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Government estimates put US data centres at about 5% of national electricity in 2024. The Energy Department's own lab projects 9.5–15% by 2030 even in its high case. Reaching a quarter of all US power in a completed year by 2030 would take about two to five times the growth any official or industry forecast expects, so a qualifying report is extremely unlikely. Only an official misstatement or a radical redefinition of data-centre use would change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00332
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}