{
  "question_id": "W210",
  "slug": "datacentres-10-percent-of-us-electricity",
  "title": "Datacentres use 10% of US electricity",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W210",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6701
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W210",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1942
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7255
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W210",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only years the publishing body treats as historical/estimated count (a reference-case value for a completed year that the report itself labels as projected or part of a 'future scenario range' does not count); the share uses the body's own data-centre category and national total (for LBNL, EIA total end-use consumption).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.44
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W210",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Data centres used about 4.7% of US electricity in 2024, and the federal lab's own forecasts put them near 10% around 2028 and well above it by 2029. Because official reports lag a year or more behind, a qualifying 10% figure is unlikely before 2030, and I put the chance at roughly even (about 48%) by the end of 2031. The biggest swing factor is whether the Energy Department's statistics agency actually launches its planned mandatory annual survey of data centres.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.479
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}