{
  "question_id": "W122",
  "slug": "datacentre-or-fab-hit-by-military-strike",
  "title": "A datacentre or chip fab in the US, China, or Taiwan is hit by a strike",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W122",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2499
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W122",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0868
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25728
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W122",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only explicit statements by the national government of the territory count (attributable statements reproduced by state media included); generic descriptions such as 'critical infrastructure' or 'a company facility' are treated as not establishing facility type, and a covert state drone attack counts only if the government confirms it as an armed-forces operation.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W122",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The only realistic way this happens in the next five years is China attacking Taiwan with missiles or aircraft, which would very likely damage a chip plant or data centre that Taipei would then report. US-China relations are calm for now, and US officials think an invasion before 2028 is unlikely, so the risk stays very low until then and builds to about 8% by 2031. What would change this most: the governing party in Taiwan winning again in January 2028, followed by Chinese military preparations.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0785
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W122",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This would almost certainly take a Chinese military attack on Taiwan, or a wider US–China war. That looks unlikely in the next year: China's top military command has been purged, the two leaders are holding summits, and US officials doubt an invasion before 2028. The risk rises after Taiwan's 2028 election. If war came, data centres would likely be hit and publicly reported, as in Ukraine. Clear signs of preparation for an invasion would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}