{
  "question_id": "W207",
  "slug": "datacentre-campus-reaches-5-gw",
  "title": "A single datacentre campus reaches 5 GW",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W207",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097735
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.189217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.225703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.264417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.301197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.339631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.379253
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W207",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0795
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4222
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W207",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal/strict reading: requires a qualifying operator or serving-utility publication reporting actual (observed peak or period-average) IT load of at least 5,000 MW at one contiguous campus; statements of installed/online capacity ('5 GW of compute capacity') or facility-level load without same-period measured campus PUE do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0512
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W207",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This is very unlikely. Today's largest AI campus uses about 1 gigawatt of computer power, and the biggest plans (Meta in Louisiana, OpenAI in Ohio, Elon Musk's SpaceX in Memphis) reach 5 gigawatts only around 2030–2032. The question also needs measured server power, not built capacity, and companies and utilities almost never publish that. The development that would most change this forecast is an operator starting to report the actual measured power its servers draw at a single site.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0654
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W207",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance that this happens by the end of 2031 at about 6%. Today's largest AI datacentre campus draws about 1 gigawatt, a fifth of the target. The projects big enough to reach 5 gigawatts are mostly scheduled to finish between 2032 and 2035. Even then, operators almost never publish the measured power drawn by computing equipment, and capacity claims do not count. The forecast would rise most if a single site were built out to 5 gigawatts years ahead of schedule.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0617
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}