{
  "question_id": "W208",
  "slug": "datacentre-campus-reaches-20-gw",
  "title": "A single datacentre campus reaches 20 GW",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W208",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.030649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.120118
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W208",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.125763
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W208",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: only an operator- or utility-authored statement of achieved, operating IT demand (not capacity, 'GW online', facility power or planned build-out) at one contiguous campus counts; separate SpaceX/xAI Memphis-area sites or portfolio totals are not combined.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W208",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 1% by the end of 2031. The largest AI data centre today runs at roughly 1 gigawatt of computing power. The biggest announced single sites aim for about 8 to 14 gigawatts, mostly in the 2030s. Operators also rarely publish measured power use, which this question requires. A credible plan for a 20-gigawatt single site with its power equipment already ordered, for example from SpaceX, would raise my estimate the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W208",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 1% by the end of 2031. Today's largest AI datacentre draws about 1 gigawatt, and the biggest announced campus plans for about 8 gigawatts of computing load by 2032. Meeting this question needs a 20-gigawatt site and a published measurement of its actual computing load, not just its capacity. The development that would most change this is a credible plan for a single 20-gigawatt-plus campus on a fast schedule.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}