{
  "question_id": "W206",
  "slug": "datacentre-campus-reaches-2-gw",
  "title": "A single datacentre campus reaches 2 GW",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W206",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1656
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4052
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4736
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5368
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.597
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6985
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8685
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W206",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1945
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8621
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8995
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W206",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "SpaceX's 'nameplate compute draw'/'compute power' is treated as IT load, and COLOSSUS II's adjoining Tulane Rd (Memphis) and Stateline Rd (Southaven) buildings as one campus; company-wide or multi-campus totals, and GW figures that are facility or grid power, do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.612
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W206",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No AI data center has been officially confirmed at 2 gigawatts of computing load yet. The largest are close to 1 gigawatt. Many campuses of several gigawatts are planned, so confirmation within five years is more likely than not. Still, operators rarely publish the exact figure this question requires. The development that would most change the forecast is a SpaceX filing naming its Memphis-area site at 2 gigawatts or more, which could come by March 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.47
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.72
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W206",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No single AI data center has yet been officially confirmed at 2 gigawatts of computer power, but SpaceX's Memphis-area Colossus 2 site is close. It will probably pass that level around early 2027. SpaceX reports a measure that closely matches the question, but so far only for several sites combined or the whole company. The biggest swing factor is whether SpaceX's annual report, due by March 2027, gives a figure for that site alone.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.44
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.47
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.55
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.57
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}