{
  "question_id": "W184",
  "slug": "customer-service-employment-down-50-percent",
  "title": "Customer service employment 50% below May 2023",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W184",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16482
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W184",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03922
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26598
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W184",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Per the stated observation-period rule, only OEWS estimates whose May reference period ends after 2026-09-16 qualify, so the May 2026 estimates (released ~spring 2027) do not count; the qualifying releases in the window are the May 2027–May 2030 estimates (released ~spring 2028–2031).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W184",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Federal survey data show about 2.6 million customer service jobs in May 2025, only 9% below the 2023 level. Meeting the threshold needs another 45% fall, and only the four annual reports out between 2028 and 2031 count. Jobs are falling about 5 to 8% a year, and the survey's three-year smoothing delays any sudden drop. The biggest change would be evidence that AI is cutting these jobs by 20% or more a year.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W184",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The government's count of customer service jobs fell about 5% a year to 2.6 million in 2025. Reaching the threshold needs roughly another 45% drop in the yearly estimates published in 2028–2031. The survey pools three years of data, so it lags reality, which makes such a fall even harder to show in time. That would be unprecedented and far beyond even aggressive industry forecasts. The development that would most change this is evidence of sudden collapse, such as call-center employment falling 20% or more a year.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}