{
  "question_id": "W253",
  "slug": "cs-enrolment-down-25-percent",
  "title": "Computer science enrolment falls 25%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W253",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7675
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W253",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.725
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7999
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W253",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "By spring 2026, undergraduate computing enrollment in the Clearinghouse figures was already about 14% below its fall 2024 peak, falling about 9% a year. Large earlier classes are still graduating and fewer students are entering. The 25% mark is most likely crossed in the spring 2028 report, possibly spring 2027. The fall 2026 figures due in January 2027 matter most: a drop well above 10% would make early resolution likely, while a slowdown would delay or prevent it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.77
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W253",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "By spring 2026, undergraduate computing enrollment was already 14% below its fall 2024 level, and it is still falling about 8–9% a year. Large graduating classes and fewer new students mean the 25% line will probably be crossed in the spring 2027 data (about a 28% chance) or during 2028 (about 70% by mid-2028). The late-October 2026 early estimate could change this: a fall drop of 13% or more makes mid-2027 likely, while 8% or less pushes it later.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.774
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}