{
  "question_id": "W98",
  "slug": "criminal-charges-against-a-lab",
  "title": "Prosecutors charge a lab or its executives over AI-caused harm",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W98",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8039
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W98",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI systems are not restricted to generative models, but recommendation or platform cases count only when a qualifying defendant is specifically alleged to be responsible for harmful AI outputs or actions; the expressly excluded French investigative steps do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7886
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W98",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A French mise en examen, arrest warrant, or opening of an information judiciaire does not count. Only a prosecutor's formal request to send a qualifying defendant to trial (réquisitoire définitif) or an equivalent charge counts. Charges against X Corp or X.AI Holdings count if they attribute responsibility for deploying Grok. SpaceXAI is treated as xAI.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.484
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W98",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No prosecutor has yet charged a major artificial intelligence company or its leaders over harm caused by its system. So far, governments have answered with civil lawsuits, investigations and proposals for new laws. The likeliest route is France's criminal case against Elon Musk and his platform X over sexual images made by the Grok chatbot, which could reach a formal request for trial in a few years. French judges finishing that investigation early would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.382
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}