{
  "question_id": "W154",
  "slug": "country-outsources-decisions-to-foreign-ai",
  "title": "A country hands state decisions to a foreign-supplied AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W154",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI-based customs selectivity counts only if it itself causes legally effective clearance or release without required case-by-case substantive human approval; supply by UNCTAD alone does not satisfy the foreign-company-or-government condition.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1954
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3969
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6706
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.692
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W154",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7223
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W154",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Automated green-lane release driven by an ML risk-selectivity engine is treated as inspection targeting (not qualifying) unless official documents state the AI itself determines release/duty; AI 'decision support' with routine human sign-off does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W154",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet officially said that a foreign-made AI makes final decisions on taxes, customs, court rulings or the budget. The closest case, Ghana's customs AI, is officially described as a tool that supports officers rather than one that decides. Governments usually say humans keep the final say, so I put the chance at about one in five by 2031. The development that would most change this is a customs or tax authority officially stating that a foreign-supplied AI assesses duties or approves refunds with no official signing off.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}