{
  "question_id": "W111",
  "slug": "corporate-tax-exceeds-income-tax",
  "title": "US corporate tax receipts exceed individual income tax",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W111",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00023499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00024499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00125473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00130467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00132464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00134462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00434058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00444015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00448993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01150793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01180447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01190329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0120021
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W111",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00022799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00122777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00123775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00124774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00125773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00527259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00529249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00531238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01525926
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01531834
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01534788
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W111",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only actual full-fiscal-year figures for FY2026 or later count (historical FY1935-43 entries in OMB Table 2.1 where corporate exceeded individual are excluded); comparison uses total Individual Income Taxes vs Corporation Income Taxes net receipts in the same Treasury/OMB release.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00529
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W111",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Individual income taxes raise about seven times as much as corporate income taxes: roughly $2.8 trillion versus $0.4 trillion last fiscal year. Corporate taxes have not been larger since 1943, and official projections show the gap persisting through 2031, so I put the chance below half a percent. The development that would most change this is a law abolishing the individual income tax, or artificial intelligence wiping out most wage income while company profits soar.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00394
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W111",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "For fiscal 2026, corporate income taxes brought in $381 billion against $2.85 trillion from individual income taxes, about one-seventh as much. Corporate receipts would need to rise more than sevenfold relative to individual receipts within five years, over three times the biggest five-year swing since World War II. Official projections show no change. What would most change this forecast is a law abolishing the individual income tax, or an AI-driven collapse in wages paired with a huge corporate tax increase.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00234
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}