{
  "question_id": "W310",
  "slug": "congress-makes-ai-harms-actionable",
  "title": "Congress makes AI developers or deployers liable for AI harms",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W310",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-06",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Congress has never let people sue AI companies directly for harm their AI causes. Every AI bill now advancing relies on government enforcement instead, and President Trump opposes new rules, so the chance stays low through 2028. It rises after 2029 if Democrats win control in the 2028 elections. I put it at about 20% by the end of 2031. A major AI-caused disaster that leaves Congress rushing to punish developers would raise it the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W310",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-06",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Every AI bill that has moved in Congress this year leaves lawsuits by harmed people to regulators. Lawmakers even stripped such a right out of one chatbot bill, and the bills that would let victims sue AI companies are early drafts. Concern about AI is intense and Democrats are favoured to win Congress, so the chance rises over time: about 1 in 9 by 2028 and roughly 1 in 4 by 2031. A broad AI law that included a right to sue would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}