{
  "question_id": "W309",
  "slug": "congress-enacts-frontier-safety-law",
  "title": "Congress enacts a frontier AI safety law",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W309",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-05",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Congress is unlikely to act this year because President Trump opposes binding AI rules and Senate talks have stalled. Over five years, though, pressure is unusually strong: AI incidents keep escalating, leading AI companies themselves want mandatory rules, and Democrats look likely to win Congress in 2026 and the presidency in 2028. I put the chance near even by 2031. A serious AI-caused disaster, or Trump backing a bill, would raise it sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.536
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W309",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-05",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Congress has not passed any law forcing the most advanced AI developers to meet safety duties, and the President opposes new rules, so passage before 2027 is unlikely. But AI incidents are mounting, leaders of both parties want guardrails, and Democrats are favored to win Congress and possibly the presidency in 2028. That makes a law somewhat more likely than not within five years. A White House endorsement of a specific bill would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.478
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.562
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.61
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.63
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.669
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}