{
  "question_id": "W161",
  "slug": "compute-cap-treaty-holds-a-year",
  "title": "A US–China compute-cap treaty holds for a year without accusations",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W161",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
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      "would_update_on": [],
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.00003
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004794
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          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013731
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019649
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026511
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034299
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051603
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061087
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070477
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079772
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118708
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W161",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
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      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003636
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006625
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010599
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015546
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106091
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W161",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted any legally binding instrument (including a bilateral executive agreement that enters into force on signature) only if it sets an explicit numeric training-compute ceiling binding both the US and China; capability-based or RSI 'speed limits' without a compute number, and non-binding joint statements, were treated as non-qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W161",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither Washington nor Beijing supports slowing AI today: Trump has rejected any brakes or global controls, and China calls slowdown proposals a bid to lock in America's lead. Their new AI dialogue covers incident reporting, not training limits. A binding cap would have to be agreed, take effect, then last a full year, so success is realistic only after 2029. A catastrophic AI incident pushing both leaders toward a binding pause would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
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          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}